On 1 April Rosstat released its first estimate of real GDP growth in Q4/10 and revisions of earlier GDP estimates for previous quarters. After taking a close look at those revisions – and especially what they reveal about the inventory cycle – we conclude that the economy will be hard pressed to meet consensus expectations for 2011 growth of 4-4.5 per cent. Indeed, the downbeat tone of the Ministry of Economic Development’s latest forecast as reported in the Russian media on 11 April –...
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