Christopher Granville

Director of Russia Research
+44 (0)20 3008 5762

Irina Lebedeva

Economist, Russia Research

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Recent Russia research

* Russia: Nabiullina takes the controls, 11 Oct 2017
* Russia: US sanctions – a contrarian case, Christopher Granville, 28 Jul 2017
* Russia: Rates outlook – the key revealed, Christopher Granville, Madina Khrustaleva, 20 Jul 2017
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* Russia: Geopolitics less bearish than oil, 23 Jun 2017

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How to understand Russia’s inventory cycle

Overview

With the Russian economy mired in recession during 2009, the inventory cycle attracted increasing attention – both as a powerful and hitherto underemphasized explanation of the slump and as a potentially strong driver of recovery. In our view, this is the wrong way to think about the present dynamic of inventories and their relation to economic growth. Instead, scrutiny of the inventory cycle highlights the probability of real growth falling short of consensus expectations in...

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