Christopher Granville

Director of Russia Research
+44 (0)20 3008 5762

Alejandro Tamola

Economic Adviser

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Recent Russia research

* Russia: Nabiullina takes the controls, 11 Oct 2017
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* Russia: End of Putin revisited, Christopher Granville, 30 Jun 2017
* Russia: Geopolitics less bearish than oil, 23 Jun 2017

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Ukraine: It’s the constitution, stupid

Overview

An analysis of the reaction of Ukrainian financial markets to broadly positive developments since April 2009 reveals politics to be the most important driver. Even the salvaging of the IMF programme took second place. Given the spectacle of political mayhem aggravating the causes, the course and the likely consequences of the present brutal economic shock, this makes complete sense.

But it also raises the key question of how to judge political developments. Most conventional...

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