Ukraine: Falling into a fiscal hole

Overview

The monetary financing of Ukraine’s exploding budget (and quasi-fiscal) deficits spells an early end to the recent signs of macroeconomic stabilisation in the form of falling inflation and the modest recovery of the hryvnia. Looking behind manipulated official fiscal statistics, the reality is clear from data on the issuance of government securities – up 290 per cent since October 2008 – with almost all this paper absorbed by the central bank. Any natural economic bounce-back will be...

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