KAZAKHSTAN: Shedding new light on Nazarbayev succession risk

Overview

The question of what happens after the end of Nursultan Nazarbayev’s presidency is the most fundamental aspect of country risk for investors in Kazakhstan. Apart from stability, the specific stakes for equity investors include the risk of upheaval in the major listed companies – Kazakhmys, KazMunaiGas EP and ENRC – in the event of a disorderly post-Nazarbayev struggle for power and rents. New legislation designating Nazarbayev as the country’s “national leader” with vaguely defined...