Russia

Should you continue to invest with Putin? Should you continue to invest with Putin?, Christopher Granville, 27 Jan 2012
Rapidly falling political risk will likely contribute to positive returns from Russian equities in 2012
Politics/governance
Who’ll invest in a country that 'sways in the wind’? Who’ll invest in a country that 'sways in the wind’?, Christopher Granville, 9 Dec 2011
Tensions surrounding the Duma election will be calmed, but Putin is now a long-term risk factor
Politics/governance
* Russia’s vulnerability to a Eurozone crash, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 2 Dec 2011
Improved monetary policy has weakened contagion and generated an attractive play on oil and gas company dividends
Macro policy
Russia’s WTO entry will generate direct wins for equity investors Russia’s WTO entry will generate direct wins for equity investors, 11 Nov 2011
The key is higher import demand leading to FDI by acquisition
Brief Notes
* The consequences of Putin’s big spend, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 4 Oct 2011
The widening structural budget deficit has silver linings for the ruble and equities
Macro policy
Putin power will increase the Russian market's sky-high beta Putin power will increase the Russian market's sky-high beta, 26 Sep 2011
Politics/governance
Russia’s tandem heading for a second term Russia’s tandem heading for a second term, Christopher Granville, 12 Aug 2011
An improved overall re-rating prospect will be supported by more radical privatization and pension reform
Politics/governance
* Capital flight episode draws to a close, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 1 Jul 2011
As a result, consumer and banking stocks will likely outperform in H2/11
Macro policy
Russian political timing alert Russian political timing alert, 20 Jun 2011
Politics/governance
Russian corruption revisited: Serious but not hopeless Russian corruption revisited: Serious but not hopeless, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 13 Jun 2011
More transparent procurement procedures and operating cost efficiency targets will likely benefit SOE shares
Politics/governance
* Macro strategy for Russian banking stock exposure, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 26 May 2011
Overweight large caps now and switch to smaller banks towards year end
Financial
* Putin’s ‘I spend because I can’ approach spells more asset price volatility, 21 Apr 2011
Macro policy
Russia’s political cycle: Getting ever better ahead of the September announcement Russia’s political cycle: Getting ever better ahead of the September announcement, 14 Apr 2011
Politics/governance
* Russian GDP data and growth outlook: Use of oil windfall is the key, 12 Apr 2011
Macro policy
The Medvedev-Putin competition spells more reformist policies The Medvedev-Putin competition spells more reformist policies, 15 Mar 2011
Politics/governance
* Labour makes the case for Russian manufacturing, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, Irina Lebedeva, 25 Feb 2011
Superior productivity gains and falling unit labour costs support increased weightings to manufacturing sectors – especially domestically oriented
Infrastructure/Industry
Russian homebuilding: A top-performing sector over the next decade Russian homebuilding: A top-performing sector over the next decade, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 9 Feb 2011
This long-term growth story can be accessed first via developers, then construction materials producers
Infrastructure/Industry
* Russia’s monetary crunch: Best of three, 1 Feb 2011
Macro policy
* Why political risk is deteriorating in Kazakhstan, 24 Jan 2011
Other FSU markets
Medvedev heading for a second term Medvedev heading for a second term, 3 Dec 2010
Politics/governance
RUSSIA: Khodorkovsky verdict prediction RUSSIA: Khodorkovsky verdict prediction, 5 Nov 2010
Politics/governance
* The big test for Russia’s new monetary policy, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 5 Nov 2010
As the Central Bank forges a mandate for itself, we expect a year-end rate hike leading to a buying opportunity in equities
Macro policy
* Now is the time to invest in the forestry sector, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 5 Oct 2010
Demand and regulatory drivers – especially for value-added import substitution – are positively aligned, with a rare IPO imminent
Natural Resources
How Luzhkov has unwittingly boosted Medvedev How Luzhkov has unwittingly boosted Medvedev, 28 Sep 2010
Politics/governance
* Russia’s fiscal slide: Causes, cure and investment implications, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 16 Sep 2010
Fiscal policy is a new and chronic risk factor for asset prices, especially tradable sectors, but budget plans will benefit autos, homebuilders and private oil and gas companies
Macro policy