Making sense of emerging markets

Russia

* The investment lessons of the Bashneft-Russneft merger, 24 Feb 2010
Energy
* How to understand Russia’s inventory cycle, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 11 Feb 2010
Inventory falls do not explain the 2009 recession, and inventory expansion will not drive the 2010 recovery – which will fall short of consensus expectations
Macro policy
* Listening to Magnit’s Galitsky on Russia’s food retail regulation, 8 Feb 2010
Brief Notes
* The Putin-Medvedev tandem at mid-term, Christopher Granville, 19 Jan 2010
Political risk tilts to the upside as Medvedev heads for a second term
Politics/governance
* Ukraine: It’s Russia or bust, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 18 Dec 2009
Ukraine’s politics have left it dependent on a bailout from a neighbour with ulterior motives
Other FSU markets
* Gazprom and the European gas market crunch, 11 Dec 2009
Energy
* The importance of imprisoning corrupt officials, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 16 Nov 2009
Property developers are clear direct winners from the clampdown on the state mafia
Politics/governance
* The importance of imprisoning corrupt officials: Appendix, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 16 Nov 2009
Politics/governance
* A new reason to buy Russian oil stocks, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 4 Nov 2009
Gas sector demonopolization: The time has now come for this reform
Energy
* The prospect of improved financial policy, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 16 Oct 2009
To monitor this major crisis-driven opportunity, watch for trends in domestic government bond issuance
Macro policy
Ruble to trend weaker through 2010 Ruble to trend weaker through 2010, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 23 Sep 2009
The government’s forecast looks sounder than most analyst predictions
Macro policy
* BELARUS: Opportunities from asset sales under duress, Christopher Granville, Tatiana Fazio, 3 Sep 2009
Crisis-driven privatisations will benefit Russian companies in exchange for continued financing from Moscow
Other FSU markets
* Russia’s fiscal stimulus offers a one-year consumer play, Christopher Granville, Irina Lebedeva, 25 Aug 2009
The sustainability problem stems from political blockages to stimulating investment
Macro policy
* Bank solvency and lending – not so gloomy, Christopher Granville, 12 Aug 2009
The role of bank recapitalisations in loan growth is widely misunderstood
Financial
* Food retail wins the trade law battle, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 29 Jul 2009
Originally an anti-retail initiative, the new trade law turns out to be beneficial for retailers, especially Magnit
Agriculture/food
* Ukraine: Falling into a fiscal hole, Christopher Granville, Alejandro Tamola, 10 Jul 2009
Ukrainian sovereign debt is now an attractive moral hazard trade
Other FSU markets
* Ukraine: It’s the constitution, stupid, Christopher Granville, Alejandro Tamola, 26 May 2009
A new perspective for spotting and exploiting mis-pricing in Ukrainian markets
Other FSU markets
* The benefits of rising unemployment, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 21 May 2009
Traditional wage flexibility is now supplemented by productivity-enhancing downsizing
Macro policy
* A bet on pensions, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 1 May 2009
A practical key to reducing market volatility and broader country risk
Financial
* Russia: The rewards of patience, Amy Boone, 2 Apr 2009
Public attitudes towards the authorities underscore the emergence of a stable nation state
Politics/governance
* Georgia: Facing the global crisis, Amy Boone, Tatiana Fazio, 13 Mar 2009
Georgia becomes a ward of international donors, but that may be counted an achievement
Other FSU markets
* Ukraine: Inadequate bank restructuring effort, Alejandro Tamola, Amy Boone, 4 Mar 2009
Why the government’s approach will fail and how this failure will play out
Other FSU markets
New SEZs prove their worth New SEZs prove their worth, Jan Cleave, Christopher Granville, 23 Feb 2009
The ‘demonstration effect’ of nurseries for direct investment
Macro policy
* Corruption and the crisis, Christopher Granville, Jan Cleave, 11 Feb 2009
Medvedev profits from past experience in taking on the state mafia
Politics/governance
* Judicial reform in the light of the crisis, Christopher Granville, Amy Boone, 12 Dec 2008
A cup always half-empty and half-full – but Medvedev has turned on the right tap
Politics/governance