Russia

Analysis of risks and opportunities for investors in Russia and the other former Soviet countries has always been part of Trusted Sources’ core research. Our extensive experience and detailed knowledge of the post-Soviet political economy provides the perspective that underlies our weekly ‘Russia Monitor’ and our thematic reports assessing political risk, tracking the functioning of institutions affecting the investment climate and corporate governance, and interpreting policymaking – from macroeconomic management to the regulation of major industrial sectors. Our sector research, which is relevant to investors in both equities and corporate credit, focuses on oil & gas, in which we have strong in-house expertise. At the same time, it draws on our presence in Moscow and a wide range of external expert sources to analyse the effect of top-down drivers on risks and cash-flow prospects in, among others, financial services, electricity utilities, industrials (such as automotive), homebuilding, agriculture and consumer-oriented technology businesses.

Now into its third decade, the history of post-Soviet Russia has been marked by periodic dramatic setbacks. Previous shocks – such as the financial crises of 1998 and 2008 – led to rapid and strong recovery. The growth slowdown following the bounce-back in 2010 from the recession caused by the global financial crisis of 2008 underlines Russia’s need to shift to a new growth model – namely, one driven mainly by fixed asset investment rather than consumption. We track progress towards this core goal in various areas, including financial-sector reform designed to support financial deepening, SOE reform, privatization and the protection of property rights.

An unavoidable focus of our research is the risks stemming from the long tenure in power of the ruling establishment, led by President Vladimir Putin, and the geopolitical confrontation over Ukraine. Despite all such problems, the current Russian landscape for investors is no longer one of post-Soviet ruin but of more modern institutions and policymaking structures, business processes and financial infrastructure – all animated by a new generation of young and ambitious professionals. Our deep understanding of this evolution through time lies at the heart of the value we have to offer in our Russia research service.

* Russia: More good news on the macro-policy front, Christopher Granville, Madina Khrustaleva, 8 Feb 2017
Rate cut outlook: slower pace offset by an ever firmer foundation; clear equity winners also emerge from enhanced policy
Macro policy & Financial
* Russia: Pay attention to Kudrin, Christopher Granville, 31 Jan 2017
Heavyweight policy planning will be a market driver in 2017
Politics/governance
* Russia-Saudi oil axis: Gain without pain, James Henderson, Christopher Granville, 19 Dec 2016
More of a floor than a motor for the oil price; cynical cheer for Russian assets
Energy/resources
The world according to Trump: Russia vs Saudi Arabia The world according to Trump: Russia vs Saudi Arabia, Christopher Granville, Marcus Chenevix, 29 Nov 2016
The strongest new geopolitical market driver now comes from France
Politics/governance
* Gazprom in Europe: Lucky 2016 ahead of the real price fight, James Henderson, Christopher Granville, 25 Nov 2016
Energy/resources