Russia

Analysis of risks and opportunities for investors in Russia and the other former Soviet countries has always been part of Trusted Sources’ core research. Our extensive experience and detailed knowledge of the post-Soviet political economy provides the perspective that underlies our thematic reports and FSU-related inputs into the firm’s pan-EM research offering. Our research assesses (geo)political risk, tracks the functioning of institutions affecting the investment climate and corporate governance, and interprets policymaking – from macroeconomic management to the regulation of major industrial sectors. Our sector research, which is relevant to investors in both equities and corporate credit, focuses on oil & gas, in which we have strong in-house expertise. At the same time, it draws on the wide range of external expert sources whom we see regularly in Moscow to analyse the effect of top-down drivers on risks and cash-flow prospects in, among others, financial services, electricity utilities, industrials (such as automotive), homebuilding, agriculture and consumer-oriented technology businesses.

Now into its third decade, the history of post-Soviet Russia has been marked by periodic dramatic setbacks. Each of the three major shocks – in 1998, 2008 and 2014 – led to recovery which, in the latest (present-day) case is less rapid but involves more thoroughgoing policy shifts from the now exhausted model of oil price-driven consumption and TFP gains as residual slack from the 1990s was taken up to a new growth model driven mainly by fixed asset investment. We track progress towards this core goal in various areas, starting with structural enhancements of monetary and fiscal policy and going on from there to cover financial-sector reform designed to support financial deepening, SOE reform, privatization and the protection of property rights.

An unavoidable focus of our research is the risks stemming from the geopolitical confrontation over Ukraine and the long tenure in power of the ruling establishment led by President Vladimir Putin that is associated with cronyism and an increasing state presence in the economy. Against this background of chronic political risk, the current Russian landscape for investors is no longer one of post-Soviet ruin but of more modern institutions and policymaking structures, business processes and financial infrastructure – all animated by a new generation of young and ambitious professionals. Our deep understanding of this evolution through time lies at the heart of the value we have to offer in our Russia research service.

* Russia: Navalny trashes Medvedev - What it means, Christopher Granville, 29 Mar 2017
A “palpable hit” – highlighting the Putin succession and privatization prospects
Politics/governance
* Russia: Geopolitical driver – negative turn, Christopher Granville, 15 Mar 2017
Change of view on timing as Ukraine tips back into crisis
Politics/governance
* Russia: Jumbo tax reform, Christopher Granville, Madina Khrustaleva, 3 Mar 2017
Relative winners and losers among sectors less important for now than the positive overall impact
Macro policy & Financial
* Russia: More good news on the macro-policy front, Christopher Granville, Madina Khrustaleva, 8 Feb 2017
Rate cut outlook: slower pace offset by an ever firmer foundation; clear equity winners also emerge from enhanced policy
Macro policy & Financial
* Russia: Pay attention to Kudrin, Christopher Granville, 31 Jan 2017
Heavyweight policy planning will be a market driver in 2017
Politics/governance