LatAm

With the end of the China-led commodities super-cycle, Latin American economies by and large face headwinds from a more challenging external environment, often in tandem with volatile domestic and political factors. The outlook ahead has been exacerbated by the failure of most countries to undertake the necessary structural reforms over the past decade, which has resulted in lackluster growth, increasing fiscal deficits and falling investment rates now that times are tougher. Other obstacles include a relatively low level of savings and investment for LatAm countries compared to their EM peers in Asia.

Nonetheless, longer term fundamentals remain compelling for the region, with its favourable demographics, rich natural resources and a strong manufacturing base particularly in Mexico and Central America, fueled by rising exports to the US. As regional currencies have weakened against the US dollar, more exporters will likely become more competitive medium term as well. Investment opportunities abound for the patient investor, but expertise is needed to identify the underlying risks and the optimal timing for entry and exit.

In the region's largest economy of Brazil, a series of missteps from President Dilma Rousseff's first term has led to a ballooning political and economic crisis. Aided by our deep in-country knowledge, we successfully identified the country’s plunge into recession well ahead of the market, and were early as well in laying out the multiple political, legislative and economic ramifications of the deepening Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) investigation, which continues to send shockwaves through the government.

Trusted Sources also tracks vital and important trends in other select Latin American countries, supplemented by intensive on-the-ground research trips and our strong network of local sources. Key research themes include the progress of energy reform in Mexico, the political and economic outlook of the post-Kirchner era in Argentina, and intriguing cross-border developments such as China's regional infrastructure financing and progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. We also do bespoke research projects upon request.

* On the road in Mexico: Between Trump and a hard place, Larry Brainard, 28 Nov 2016
Mexico
* Glass half full for Mexico’s economy, Larry Brainard, Leopoldo Gomes, 22 Jul 2014
Despite optimism about reforms, the Mexican economy has been struggling to regain economic momentum
Mexico
* Mexico’s reform anniversary: The political secret of success, Citlalli Moreno, Elizabeth Johnson, Christopher Granville, 6 Dec 2013
More key reform laws, including on energy, will be enacted – but beware consequent momentum trading
Mexico
* On the road in Latin America: A tale of two halves, 3 Oct 2013
Mexico
* Mexico’s fiscal reform: Potential changes bring both risk and opportunity, 25 Sep 2013
Mexico