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A look at the unique risks and potential rewards for portfolio and direct investors in Indian infrastructure. For more information, please click here.
Our coverage of India focuses on understanding whether domestic growth drivers and the restoration of political stability will help the economy continue to expand robustly in the face of a global recession. The election of a ruling coalition unambiguously led by the Indian National Congress is encouraging. We will closely monitor the prospects for accelerated economic reforms as well as necessary administrative reforms to improve governance and thereby growth potential and returns on investment. Another area of concern will be the ability of a reinvigorated government to deal with serious foreign policy challenges emanating from destabilisation in Pakistan and the South Asian region.
Going forward, we will continue to examine emerging macroeconomic themes in India such as the impact of various fiscal and monetary measures as the economy tries to recover from the global financial crisis. Our sectoral approach will continue, focused in particular on three sectors that we believe reflect the best investment opportunities but have opaque policy environments:
· Agriculture: Buoyancy in this sector has helped ameliorate the impact of the economic slowdown and rural prosperity contributed to the Congress party’s election victory. However there is vast untapped potential in this sector that remains mostly untouched by reforms.
· Real estate: Housing and commercial development are closely tied to the rise of India's 300 million-strong and growing middle class population, and thereby the Indian growth story. The boom years resulted in excesses but increasing urbanisation will keep demand for housing strong for many years to come.
· Infrastructure: This is a priority given the government's realisation that India cannot sustain high economic growth if its roads, ports and electricity supply do not see rapid improvement. The regulatory environment has improved, drawing in private investment, but much more needs to be done.
Strategic question: Will domestic and foreign security concerns affect the investment environment?
Short-term questions: How are relations with China and Pakistan improving? Will armed ethnic and leftist movements distract policymakers from other priorities?
Strategic questions: Does politics hurt growth and investment? How can the government improve the delivery of public services?
Short-term questions: How do coalitions affect policy-making? How is the balance of power changing between national and regional parties? Does the current government have the will and ability to make promised improvements in administration?
Strategic question: Will the Indian economy continue to expand at a rapid clip or will uneven development become a stumbling block?
Short-term question: Are India’s political dynamics conducive to major structural reforms that are necessary to enable sustainable and higher growth?
Strategic question: Can agricultural growth be accelerated so that the benefits of economic growth spread to rural India?
Short-term questions: Will the government have the will or strength to push ahead with efforts to liberalise agriculture and reform rural markets? How are the links between agriculture and industry evolving?
Strategic question: How far will India integrate with the world economy?
Short term questions: How will politics affect exchange rate policy? Will India facilitate or impede global trade liberalisation? What is the future of the outsourcing industry?
If you would like to read more please contact Craig Harrison on +44 203 008 6093 or email the research team.