Left in limbo

20 Nov 2007

Overview

Core Case

Elections or not, the likelihood of the nuclear deal's success has increased

Assumptions and Evidence

Despite Congress timidity, election portents are as good as they will ever get

Assumptions and Evidence

Although the BJP's surprise defeat in 2004 induces caution about the accuracy of opinion polls, the data show that the UPA remains ahead of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) although its lead has gradually begun to shrink as anti-incumbent sentiment grows.

Seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament

The nuclear deal itself is not a significant election issue and is overshadowed by concerns over inflation and the condition of the country's farmers. Only 6 per cent of respondents in a September survey listed it as the most important issue in a mid-term election.

Main issue in a mid-term election (per cent)
Inflation	36
Condition of farmers	36
Hindu nationalism	8
US-India deal	6
Lower-caste job reservations	6

Source: Mock mid-term poll, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi, September 2007

About two-thirds of survey respondents from different categories of voters either had never heard of the nuclear deal or had no opinion about it. The exception to this rule is school graduates of whom nearly two-thirds had an opinion about the deal.

In the wider population, there is a small majority in favour of the deal among those who hold an opinion. This also applies to Muslims although conventional wisdom considers them opposed to any agreement with the Bush administration which they believe to be anti-Muslim. The only group that is clearly opposed consists of left voters.