India

* India: Growth risks shift to the downside, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 24 Aug 2017
The sustainability of consumer-led growth is in doubt as investment demand shows little signs of revival
Macro policy
* India: Stake sales to test Modi’s political will, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 10 Aug 2017
The privatization programme’s revival is an encouraging sign that the government is willing to use political capital to pursue tough reforms.
Macro policy
* India: Competition with China enters new phase, Amitabh Dubey, 3 Aug 2017
Even as their border standoff eases, relations between China and India are set to deteriorate
Politics/governance
* India: Smooth GST rollout masks important risks, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 27 Jul 2017
The historic tax reform gets off to a good start without any major disruptions to business, but uncertainty over rules and impact of new tax persists
Macro policy
* India: Politics hampers RBI’s battle for credibility, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 13 Jul 2017
The Reserve Bank of India’s nascent inflation targeting approach has come under fire amid surprisingly soft inflation figures
Macro policy
* India: Food deflation changes electoral dynamics, Amitabh Dubey, 7 Jul 2017
Falling agricultural prices could damage incumbent governments in approaching state elections
Agriculture/food
* India: Bad debt problem to test RBI’s resolve, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 29 Jun 2017
The Reserve Bank’s actions reveal a sense of urgency to get to grips with the issue, but a concrete plan for structural reforms is still lacking
Macro policy
* India: Strong economic growth to remain local, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 15 Jun 2017
Despite India’s rising share in world GDP, the impact of growth drivers will be mainly domestic
Macro policy
* India: Return of cash bodes ill for tax revenues, Amitabh Dubey, 1 Jun 2017
Growth in digital payments is gradually reverting to the mean
Macro policy
* India: GST rollout threatens supply disruptions, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Amitabh Dubey, 25 May 2017
Even as big corporates gear up for the key tax reform, concerns about lack of preparedness among smaller firms and the government abound
Macro policy
* India: Political decisions will disrupt reform, Amitabh Dubey, 18 May 2017
Modi has notched up some hits and some misses, but demonetization presages a shift towards politically-motivated unpredictability
Macro policy
* India: Headline GDP obscures unbalanced growth, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 4 May 2017
The economic recovery will likely be gradual, uneven and, overall, fragile
Macro policy
* India: The return of farm loan waivers, Amitabh Dubey, 28 Apr 2017
Agriculture/food
* Indian Reserve Bank seeks to regain its own voice, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 20 Apr 2017
The Governor’s focus on inflation and his criticism of the farm loan waiver are signs of the central bank trying to reassert autonomy
Macro policy
* India: Hindu hardliners on the ascendant, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 24 Mar 2017
Modi incorporates Hindu nationalism into his policy mix of populism and development
Politics/governance
* India: The political consequences of Modi’s state election victory, Amitabh Dubey, 17 Mar 2017
Modi’s re-election prospects in 2019 are strong
Politics/governance
India: On the road in Uttar Pradesh: Modi’s BJP set to win key election India: On the road in Uttar Pradesh: Modi’s BJP set to win key election, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 8 Mar 2017
Modi’s nationalist, pro-poor rhetoric appears to have worked in a high-stakes election
Politics/governance
* India: On the road in Mumbai and New Delhi: Investor optimism is high, despite the looming risk of economic disruption, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Jon Harrison, 16 Feb 2017
The effects of demonetization and the expected GST rollout will filter through the economy in the longer term but will have a negative impact over the next 12 months, raising worries about the strength of the recovery
Politics/governance
* India: On the road in Punjab ahead of crucial vote outcome, Amitabh Dubey, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 8 Feb 2017
Local issues dominate the polls amid demonetization pinch
Politics/governance
* India: Cautious budget does little to stimulate growth, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Amitabh Dubey, 2 Feb 2017
Structural reform is not being advanced
Macro policy
* India: Why the government is likely to deviate from fiscal conservatism, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, , 25 Jan 2017
State spending has compensated for the lack of private investment as the demonetization-induced slowdown delays any recovery
Macro policy
* India: Modi’s nationalist-populist turn reinforces his electoral prospects, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Amitabh Dubey, 13 Jan 2017
Notwithstanding the economic damage caused by demonetization, Modi remains popular ahead of key state polls in February
Politics/governance
* India: On the road in Uttar Pradesh as confidence in demonetization drive dips, Amitabh Dubey, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 14 Dec 2016
Modi’s gamble heads for its moment of reckoning as the cash crunch shows no signs of abating two weeks before his own deadline expires
Macro policy
* India: RBI reveals limits of monetary policy, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 7 Dec 2016
Monetary policy cannot control the cash-dependent unbanked and informal sectors of the economy, which have been worst hit by the banknote ban
Macro policy
* India: Demonetization may succeed in electoral terms, but with huge collateral damage, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 24 Nov 2016
The economic fallout is bigger than the government anticipated and the effectiveness of implementation is in question
Macro policy