Making sense of emerging markets

India

* The risk from Pakistan, Amitabh Dubey, 8 Mar 2010
The Indian government will be restrained in its response to terror attacks so as to protect economic growth
Regional security
* Food inflation exposes policy failings, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 4 Mar 2010
Government mismanagement and a dovish central bank will result in a prolonged period of rising prices
Macro policy
* Fertilizer price reform – the Indian government’s best move YTD, 22 Feb 2010
Agriculture/food
* Commercial property misses the recovery bus, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 11 Feb 2010
The prospect of stagnant office rentals has broader economic significance
Infrastructure
* Smaller states will promote economic growth, Amitabh Dubey, 27 Jan 2010
But regional fragmentation heightens short-term political and corruption risks
Politics/governance
* Indian autos about to slow, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 15 Jan 2010
A drop in 2010 auto sales will not signal a change in long-term demand drivers
Consumer
* Food inflation will be the key macro driver in 2010, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 16 Dec 2009
The inevitable introduction of short-term monetary policy measures will not address the structural causes of rising food prices
Macro policy
* Dealing with the capital surge, Amitabh Dubey, 16 Dec 2009
Rising inflation is likely to spark rapid rupee appreciation in 2010 but not strong capital controls
Macro policy
* The housing price rebound is built on sand, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 25 Nov 2009
Slow credit growth, limited physical transactions and high developer inventories will cap further increases
Infrastructure
* Why India's consumer goods sales are beating market expectations, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 17 Nov 2009
Resilience of rural demand and mass consumption boosts revenue growth
Consumer
* The Maoist threat to industry in central India, Amitabh Dubey, 6 Nov 2009
A military campaign to suppress leftist insurgents raises the likelihood of attacks on metals and mining companies
Politics/governance
* Urban water’s new wave, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 30 Oct 2009
Increased government financing driving more and larger water projects is creating new opportunities for private firms
Infrastructure
Infrastructure update: Activity picks up in power, roads and ports Infrastructure update: Activity picks up in power, roads and ports, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 6 Oct 2009
Infrastructure equipment suppliers will be the main beneficiaries of improved investment momentum
Infrastructure
* New pension plan will deepen financial markets, Amitabh Dubey, 28 Sep 2009
But regulatory changes for the plan’s rapid growth will take another two-three years
Politics/governance
* INDIA: Making India’s national highways investor-friendly, Amitabh Dubey, 11 Sep 2009
Land acquisition and contract term improvements promise to revitalise India’s road-building programme
Infrastructure
* INDIA: Pakistan policy could erode post-election political premium in equity markets, Amitabh Dubey, 21 Aug 2009
Manmohan Singh faces internal party challenges to his Pakistan overtures
Regional security
* INDIA: Mass consumption is holding up but brands are suffering, 17 Aug 2009
Consumers are abandoning higher-end brands searching for value for money
Consumer
* INDIA: Rural demand to the rescue, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 6 Aug 2009
Rural consumption is cushioning the decline in overall growth as rural demand becomes more broad based and less dependent on unpredictable monsoons
Consumer
* India’s affordable housing offers no quick fix for the real estate industry, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 7 Jul 2009
The low-margin, competitive affordable housing market cannot neutralise the burden of large land banks and debt on developers’ profitability.
Infrastructure
* India: Why growth will not bounce back, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 18 Jun 2009
Domestic demand will continue to support India's economic growth, but at a lower level than market participants expect.
Macro policy
* India: Judging the new government, Amitabh Dubey, 8 Jun 2009
Governance will improve under a stronger Congress-led coalition
Politics/governance
* The March of the Third Front, Amitabh Dubey, 22 Apr 2009
A multiparty coalition excluding the two national parties is a real possibility
Politics/governance
* Roads programme turning the corner?, Amitabh Dubey, 7 Apr 2009
The highway building programme has disappointed so far but new opportunities are emerging
Infrastructure
Political instability on the horizon Political instability on the horizon, Amitabh Dubey, 19 Feb 2009
The Congress Party has the advantage in the run-up to the elections, but a weak coalition government could still result
Politics/governance
* Where are India’s growth drivers?, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 30 Jan 2009
The domestic demand-driven economy still offers pockets of growth, especially in consumer demand and infrastructure-related businesses
Macro policy