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Rubber’s impending bounce

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For more information on how Trusted Sources approaches topics in the Global Market Impact Channel, here are our current themes and questions:

Global Market Impact

Key emerging economies are driving global markets, not only via burgeoning exports and in the scramble for scarce raw materials, but also in their growing financial muscle, which promises to alter the balance of international financial power.

Trade and Finance Nexus

Strategic questions: How will the economic boom in the BRICs and other major emerging market countries reshape global trade patterns? What role will these emerging powers play in global trade negotiations? What impact will they have on the global economy's evolving financial architecture?

Short-term questions: The primary institutions governing international finance - the WTO, the IMF and World Bank - are suffering crises of identity and legitimacy. Will the BRICs use their new economic power to pressure them to reform or will they bypass them altogether? How will the BRICs' burgeoning financial holdings impact global economic trends, especially inflation and interest rates?

The GMI Outlook

A periodic update on our views of economic trends in the global economy.

Soft Commodities

Strategic questions: China's growth is an opportunity for commodity producers in emerging markets. Are they in a position to take advantage of this chance? Or will political, economic or logistical problems stand in their way?

Short-term questions: How do changing patterns of demand affect commodities? What are the follow-on impacts of the current biofuels mania?

Global Supply Chain

Strategic questions: Hidden beneath the visible face of globalization lies a global supply chain that is increasingly stretched to its limits. Can the transport infrastructure linking commodity exporters, manufacturers and retail consumers cope with increased volumes and demand? Where are the potential bottlenecks?

Short-term questions: How do shifts in trade policies and global patterns of demand and consumption affect the supply chain? And how do those changes impact goods and freight prices? What is the status of ongoing efforts to upgrade global transport infrastructure?

Domestic Financial Markets

Strategic questions: Domestic financial markets play a critical role in mobilising savings and allocating resources to competing uses. What reform strategies are individual governments implementing to enhance the ability of domestic financial markets to sustain rapid economic growth? What role will foreign capital likely play in such reform strategies? What is the status of reforms of countries' pension systems?
Short-term questions: How will external pressures for currency appreciation play out? How vulnerable are domestic financial markets to potential disruptive adjustment of the so-called global imbalances?

Social and Development Policy

Strategic question: Increased public spending on social goals, including health, education, infrastructure investment and social welfare have broad ranging implications for fiscal sustainability and longer-term growth. How are individual countries managing prospective large increases in public spending? Are needed reforms being implemented to ensure the effective use of such spending? Have individual countries evolved viable long-term economic development strategies?
Short-term questions: What are the near-term barriers to sustaining rapid economic growth? Is there evidence that governments are giving increased priority to social welfare goals, such as supporting an aging population and providing more effective social safety nets for those most affected by economic change?

If you would like to read more please contact Craig Harrison on +44 203 008 6093 or email the research team.

GMI Research Team
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