EM Themes

* Perspectives on BRIC decoupling, Larry Brainard, Martinde Bonte, 16 Sep 2010
Evidence supporting the decoupling thesis is unpersuasive
Chartbook
* Strategy for BRIC markets – Autumn 2010, Larry Brainard, Martinde Bonte, 9 Sep 2010
Stay underweight equities but overweight BRIC currencies, local rates and credit
TS View
* Commodities in a deflationary world, Deepak Gopinath, 19 Aug 2010
Near-term weakness and limited medium-term upside for hard commodities, but opportunities in softs
TS View
* BRICs in global agricultural trade, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, Martinde Bonte, 12 Aug 2010
China is driving demand while Brazil is positioned to satisfy it
Chartbook
How to play the coming tectonic shifts in the global food trade How to play the coming tectonic shifts in the global food trade, Deepak Gopinath, 5 Aug 2010
Agricultural logistics and storage will benefit as India and China become net importers
TS View
* Consumption has led economic recovery in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, Martinde Bonte, 29 Jul 2010
But a slowdown is expected as fiscal stimulus wears off
Chartbook
* Brazil’s economy after the elections, Larry Brainard, 22 Jul 2010
Don’t believe the hype – serious problems lie ahead no matter who wins
TS View
* BRIC exports are vulnerable to deflation in the EU and the US, Larry Brainard, Dian Qu, Bo Zhuang, 21 Jul 2010
Russia is the most exposed, India the least
Chartbook
* A deflation stress test for the BRICs, Larry Brainard, 8 Jul 2010
Deflation will hit China hardest while India is best positioned to benefit
TS View
* BRIC telecom services moving into new growth phase, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 30 Jun 2010
With penetration rates already high the next growth phase will feature new technologies
Chartbook
Europe’s crisis and the BRICs: Stumbling into Phase 2 Europe’s crisis and the BRICs: Stumbling into Phase 2, Larry Brainard, 17 Jun 2010
The Greek crisis is turning into a larger banking crisis for the eurozone
TS View
* Trends in energy use and production in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 9 Jun 2010
China and India face growing dependency on imported energy
Chartbook
* India-China resource competition, Deepak Gopinath, 3 Jun 2010
India’s emergence as a growing consumer and importer of raw materials will cushion the decline in hard commodity prices, coal in particular
Commodities
* Long-term investment trends in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 27 May 2010
The Asian BRICs lead the way in expanding investment; Russia and Brazil lag far behind
Chartbook
* Why a Greek rescheduling is good news for EM investors, Larry Brainard, 20 May 2010
Investors should wait for the rescheduling before building positions in EM securities
TS View
* Capital flows into BRIC equity and debt markets, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 13 May 2010
Positive for long-term valuations but entry points will be better later this year
Chartbook
* Implications of the Greek crisis for emerging market investors, Larry Brainard, 6 May 2010
Risk aversion is rising now but capital flight into emerging economies is only a matter of time
TS View
* How BRIC bank lending weathered the crisis, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 29 Apr 2010
Only Russia failed to sustain positive loan growth during the recession
Chartbook
Is China’s local government debt a serious problem? Is China’s local government debt a serious problem?, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 27 Apr 2010
China’s local government debt is much higher than officially acknowledged but overall levels are still manageable
Economic policy and strategy
* BRIC fault lines, Deepak Gopinath, 27 Apr 2010
Frictions are increasing, especially between India and China
Trade and finance nexus
* The BRICs are driving global trade in raw materials, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 19 Apr 2010
China is the dominant importer while Brazil and Russia gain on the export front
Chartbook
* The battle over China’s yuan policy is just getting started, Larry Brainard, 7 Apr 2010
Don’t be fooled – US-China relations are set to worsen
TS View
* Industrial production is driving the BRIC economic recovery, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 25 Mar 2010
China and India are leading the way with Brazil and Russia playing catch-up
Chartbook
* China’s bifurcated commodity outlook, Deepak Gopinath, 19 Mar 2010
Base metals go down and steel goes up while strategic stockpiling drives grains and crude oil higher
Commodities
* BRIC auto markets in transformation, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 11 Mar 2010
Timely incentives for car purchases have buoyed economic growth in all the BRICs except Russia
Chartbook