EM Themes

* Implications of Southeast Asia’s fast-rising wheat imports, Deepak Gopinath, 15 Jun 2011
Higher incomes are exacerbating global market tightness
TS View
* EM Strategy Monthly, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Martinde Bonte, 9 Jun 2011
Hard landings and other fables
Strategy Monthly
* Deciphering Brazil’s mixed economic messages, Martinde Bonte, Elizabeth Johnson, 2 Jun 2011
The government’s goal of maintaining strong growth means inflation will remain high
TS View
* What Turkey’s upcoming general election will mean, Sevin Ekinci, Larry Brainard, 25 May 2011
We expect another AKP victory but with slightly reduced support
TS View
EM Strategy Monthly EM Strategy Monthly, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Martinde Bonte, 12 May 2011
Stay focused, stay in EM equities
Strategy Monthly
Why investors should turn to Indonesia Why investors should turn to Indonesia, Martinde Bonte, Deepak Gopinath, 5 May 2011
Don’t expect miracles; do expect stability and growth
TS View
* Why Turkey’s Central Bank will stick with its unorthodox policies, Sevin Ekinci, Larry Brainard, 14 Apr 2011
New Governor Basci will defer interest rate hikes when addressing rising inflation
TS View
* The coming squeeze on Indonesia’s energy exports, Deepak Gopinath, 12 Apr 2011
Resource nationalism and rising domestic demand presage slowing growth in shipments of thermal coal and LNG
TS View
EM Strategy Monthly EM Strategy Monthly, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, 7 Apr 2011
Why the exit from quantitative easing is good news for EM equities
Strategy Monthly
* Why macroprudential policies will not curb inflation, Larry Brainard, 18 Mar 2011
Turkey and Brazil illustrate the ineffectiveness of emerging market economic tactics du jour
TS View
* Indonesia’s pivotal position in the global commodities trade, Martinde Bonte, Deepak Gopinath, 25 Feb 2011
Rising domestic demand will limit growth in exports of thermal coal and palm oil
Chartbook
* Implications of China’s growing dependency on grain imports, Deepak Gopinath, 11 Feb 2011
Recent corn imports signal a shift but the transition will be gradual
TS View
* Why China can live with higher inflation, Larry Brainard, 3 Feb 2011
Policymakers are surprisingly sanguine about the outlook; investors should understand why
TS View
Consumption growth in the BRICs is peaking Consumption growth in the BRICs is peaking, Martinde Bonte, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, 18 Jan 2011
Inflation and monetary tightening will erode real incomes and slow retail sales
Chartbook
* The dark horse of global steel, Deepak Gopinath, 17 Dec 2010
India’s appetite for steel increasingly drives demand
TS View
* How will India fund another quantum leap in investment?, Martinde Bonte, 8 Dec 2010
Reliance on short-term foreign capital inflows will increase unless India gets serious about reforms
TS View
* Implications of the spike in soft commodity prices, Deepak Gopinath, 23 Nov 2010
Grain outlook improves as farmers switch to production of softs
TS View
* Food inflation in the BRICs revisited, Deepak Gopinath, Martinde Bonte, 12 Nov 2010
Rising food prices are driving overall inflation in importers and exporters of food alike
Chartbook
* Currency wars: The end game, Larry Brainard, Martinde Bonte, 28 Oct 2010
EM real exchange rates will appreciate, hurting the export and import-competing sectors
TS View
* Rare earths and China’s high-tech ambitions, Deepak Gopinath, 21 Oct 2010
A whatever-it-takes attitude towards moving up the value chain poses challenges for India and the West
TS View
* BRIC currencies under pressure to revalue, Larry Brainard, Martinde Bonte, 14 Oct 2010
Brazil and India feel the heat from capital inflows while China sticks to tight controls
Chartbook
* The coming BRIC currency wars, Larry Brainard, 6 Oct 2010
Investors should prepare for greater restrictions on global capital flows
TS View
* Capital raising in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Martinde Bonte, 30 Sep 2010
China leads, followed by Brazil while India and Russia trail behind
Chartbook
* What China’s energy conservation drive means for steel and bulk commodities, Deepak Gopinath, 23 Sep 2010
The biggest risk to the outlook is not steel production cutbacks but a delay in expected policy easing
Commodities
* China’s labour market is leading the rebalancing, Bo Zhuang, Jonathan Fenby, 20 Sep 2010
Why rising wages are a good thing
Economic policy and strategy