Irene Lauro

Economist, EMEA Research
+44 20 7246 7878

Larry Brainard

Managing Director, Chief Economist
+44 20 7246 7883

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How vulnerable is Turkey’s economy amid Erdoğan’s power grab?

Overview

Turkey’s current and capital accounts have been dramatically influenced by domestic political developments, with huge portfolio outflows from the country amid political uncertainty driven by President Recep Erdoğan’s desire to consolidate more power in his hands. These large capital outflows put the lira under pressure, forcing the Central Bank to sell reserves in order to defend the currency.

As FX reserves are at an alarming record low, we believe that further sustained swings...

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