Making sense of emerging markets

EM Themes

* Cutting through the muddle on China’s monetary outlook, Larry Brainard, 5 Mar 2010
Surprises are in store for the market
TS View
* Perspectives on residential housing prices in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 26 Feb 2010
China is the only bubble, and it is about to deflate
Chartbook
* How to think about food inflation in India and China, Deepak Gopinath, 19 Feb 2010
A problem with similar causes in the two countries but very different effects
Economic policy and strategy
* China’s exports on the rebound, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 19 Feb 2010
China is gaining market share in a broad range of products
Trade and finance nexus
* Perspectives on capital flows in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Deepak Gopinath, Bo Zhuang, 12 Feb 2010
Led by China, the BRICs continue to accumulate foreign reserves
Chartbook
* Making sense of China’s loan crunch, Larry Brainard, 5 Feb 2010
An export rebound is driving China’s decision to exit its monetary stimulus
TS View
* Assessing China’s energy demand, Deepak Gopinath, 29 Jan 2010
Record oil and coal imports are misleading the markets
TS View
* Perspectives on food inflation in the BRICs, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 25 Jan 2010
*Trusted Sources has introduced chartbooks as a new component of the BRIC Themes service offering. These will be sent to you twice a month and will examine cross-BRIC themes.*
Chartbook
* The political fault lines that threaten the global economic recovery, Larry Brainard, 14 Jan 2010
Souring US-China relations spell trouble ahead for the markets
TS View
* How China will manage the real estate bubble, Bo Zhuang, Larry Brainard, Jonathan Fenby, 17 Dec 2009
Supply-side expansion and elimination of policy incentives will be used to keep a lid on property prices
Economic policy and strategy
* How China propels global food price inflation, Deepak Gopinath, 17 Dec 2009
Already the world’s largest soybean importer, China will rapidly become a major importer of other grains as it is forced to abandon self-sufficiency
TS View
* How China will trigger the next dollar crisis, Larry Brainard, 3 Dec 2009
China’s increasingly assertive push back against Western pressures for economic policy changes will undermine the dollar
TS View
* Why China is not yet ready to be a global power, Deepak Gopinath, 25 Nov 2009
Beijing is too self-interested and insecure to take on the mantle of global leadership
TS View
* Grains galore: Agricultural commodity update, Deepak Gopinath, 17 Nov 2009
High stock levels provide a cushion but prices will remain volatile, especially for wheat and rice
Commodities
* Something is wrong with the global recovery story, Larry Brainard, 13 Nov 2009
US monetary policy is undermining the dollar and spawning price bubbles in emerging economies
TS View
* Brazil battles the inevitable with the ineffective, Larry Brainard, 3 Nov 2009
The new tax on capital inflows will boost volatility but not stem the Real’s long-term appreciation
TS View
* The China commodity bubble revisited, Deepak Gopinath, 26 Oct 2009
Hard commodity prices are being sustained by speculative purchases, not by final demand
TS View
* The new geography of international finance, Larry Brainard, 9 Oct 2009
Emerging economies are driving the transition to a new multipolar system
TS View
* Deflation and the BRICs, Deepak Gopinath, 9 Oct 2009
Competition and overcapacity among Asian exporters will maintain downward pressure on traded goods prices, shifting the balance of risks towards deflation
Trade and finance nexus
Property: China’s best option to counter the coming slowdown in growth  Property: China’s best option to counter the coming slowdown in growth, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 7 Sep 2009
Property comes into focus as the lynchpin of the government’s efforts to sustain rapid growth
Economic policy and strategy
* The TS View: Brazilian markets move into pole position, Larry Brainard, 19 Aug 2009
Most investors missed the rally – get set for the rerun
Trade and finance nexus
* Endgame for the China-led commodities boom, Deepak Gopinath, 7 Aug 2009
With Chinese restocking largely complete and few signs of a sustainable G3 recovery, many hard commodities are poised for a fall
Global supply chain
* China’s high-stakes Asian challenge, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 23 Jul 2009
Hopes that China’s economic rebound will buoy Asian economic recovery and spur regional economic integration are misplaced
Trade and finance nexus
* BRAZIL-CHINA: Love match or clash of titans?, Elizabeth Johnson, Larry Brainard, 14 Jul 2009
Despite the impressive growth of trade a rocky road lies ahead
Trade and finance nexus
* Why China’s growth rebound will falter, Larry Brainard, Bo Zhuang, 30 Apr 2009
Sustained economic growth requires a new growth strategy, not economic stimulus
Economic policy and strategy