Larry Brainard

Managing Director, Chief Economist
+44 20 7246 7883

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Recent Emerging Markets research

* Structural Change Index: Biannual update, Jon Harrison, 25 Apr 2017
* EM Watch, Jon Harrison, Christopher Granville, Cristobal Arias, Grace Fan, Jonathan Fenby, Jules Bordat, 24 Apr 2017
* The Grid, Larry Brainard, 18 Apr 2017
* EM Watch, Christopher Granville, Elizabeth Johnson, Jon Harrison, Michelle Lam, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 17 Apr 2017
* Fundamental Drivers, Bo Zhuang, Christopher Granville, Cristobal Arias, Elizabeth Johnson, Jon Harrison, Jules Bordat, Marcus Chenevix, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 11 Apr 2017

See all our Emerging Markets research >>

Trump vs the ‘new globalization’: A battle the President can’t win

Overview

US-Mexican trade is dominated by global value chains – a characteristic that is important but less evident in US trade with China because of the distances involved. The very presence of such value chains makes it impossible for Trump to realize his threats to impose border taxes on Mexico without causing major damage to US manufacturing jobs. But the same cannot be said about US-China trade, which lacks such well-developed channels for trade. As a result, the risk of a worst-case...

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