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Recent Emerging Markets research
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Trump vs the ‘new globalization’: A battle the President can’t win
US-Mexican trade is dominated by global value chains – a characteristic that is important but less evident in US trade with China because of the distances involved. The very presence of such value chains makes it impossible for Trump to realize his threats to impose border taxes on Mexico without causing major damage to US manufacturing jobs. But the same cannot be said about US-China trade, which lacks such well-developed channels for trade. As a result, the risk of a worst-case...