Larry Brainard

Managing Director, Chief Economist
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Global Themes: Threats to EM markets in 2014 from deflation and secular stagnation

Overview

The continuing debate about the timing of Fed tapering has overshadowed two developing issues that have important implications for the outlook for EM countries in 2014. The first is the reappearance of deflation in the Eurozone and the other is the suggestion by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that the US economy is slipping into secular stagnation. Below we evaluate each topic and its potential impact on emerging markets.

Concerns about deflation in the Eurozone were...

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