Emerging Markets: EM and Global Themes

* Renminbi on track to join the SDR: Implications for monetary policy and financial reform, Larry Brainard, 2 Nov 2015
There will be no major changes either in the international monetary system or in China’s domestic financial reforms
* Russia’s goals in Syria, Christopher Granville, 14 Sep 2015
Though not solving Russia’s Ukraine problem, Putin’s Syria gambit will help repair the damage
* On the horns of a trilemma: EM currencies and the ‘impossible trinity’, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 9 Mar 2015
Reassessing EM FX regimes vis à vis Swiss revaluation, ‘Grexit’ risk, ECB QE and Fed tightening
* The ‘Levy effect’ on Brazilian markets: The honeymoon will soon be over, Larry Brainard, 30 Jan 2015
US$ and Real sovereign bonds are rallying, but the rising tide of bad news in the pipeline has yet to be factored into valuations
* Welcome to a new year and a new global growth model: Every country for itself, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 23 Jan 2015
The US-led transition from global credit- to national income-led growth favours externally balanced domestic-demand plays
* A winter of discontent for EM credit, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 7 Jan 2015
EM corporate credit risks are local not global, despite the systematic threats of a rising dollar and falling oil prices
* Great game changer: A paradox of rising geopolitical risk and falling oil, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 17 Dec 2014
The 2014 oil collapse – a terms-of-trade shock for exporters and a financial shock across EM
* On the road in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro: Sifting the clues on Brazil’s 2015 economic outlook, Larry Brainard, 17 Dec 2014
* Navigating ‘growth-off’ global markets, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 20 Oct 2014
The ‘new mediocre’ calls for a fear/greed ‘barbell’: US and select EM vs the EZ and Japan
* Special FX: Expect an orderly transition – not a tightening tantrum, Arnab Das, Jon Harrison, 22 Sep 2014
Divergences point to specific EM opportunities, despite a stronger US dollar and higher EM FX volatility