EM Macro Strategy

The EM Macro Strategy research group provides analysis of emerging markets in the global context evaluating progress in economic reform and exploring cross-country themes. Our work deals with the domestic impact of world trends and the adjustment strategies adopted by individual countries with an eye to identifying winners and losers. Our research draws on extensive experience in international finance and emerging market investment strategy. We work closely with Trusted Sources' country teams to understand and explain global macro trends as well as calling on the expertise of industrial, financial and economic specialists.

Our EM Macro Strategy team produces the following publications:

EM Strategy Monthly

This is our flagship publication, which appears at the beginning of each month. It elaborates on our political, economic, asset allocation and market views across asset classes about each of the 10 emerging market countries we cover: China, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, South Africa and Turkey. Our Chief Economist Larry Brainard writes a portfolio strategy essay in each EM Strategy Monthly that covers an important market topic related to the external drivers of emerging market asset prices or to a current emerging market theme.

As part of our internal process for producing the EM Strategy Monthly, we take detailed inputs from our country teams and analysts and hold an “investment conclusions” meeting at which we discuss existing and proposed absolute and relative market views and their fundamental drivers.

EM Weekly

Our EM Weekly is published on a Monday morning. It is divided into three sections. In the first section, we explain the implications of recent and upcoming developments that have a bearing on our country and market views. The second section summarizes our selection of the “must read” notes from among our research published over the past week. Finally, we summarize our macro and market views for each of the 10 countries we cover.

Fundamentals:

TS Fundamental Drivers

This report is published in the second week of the month and summarizes our high-conviction political-economy views. These political-economy views are the fundamental drivers of the absolute and relative market strategy views expressed in our monthly strategy reports: TS Absolute Views and EM Strategy Monthly.

The GRID

This report is published in the third week of the month and presents our fundamental guide to emerging markets using an accessible heatmap style to highlight our view of the short-term and long-term growth drivers and the economic outlook for each emerging market economy. In addition, the report summarizes our asset class views for each country.

TS Structural Change Index

The TS Structural Change Index is based on our analysts’ detailed insights and is published every six months. It offers a framework in which to understand our insights into the drivers of long-term sustainable economic growth and provides a diversified input into the investment decision-making process that can be used alongside standard inputs – such as valuation metrics, investor sentiment, macroeconomic and market timing indicators.

Market Views:

Absolute View Launch Note

We highlight between two and four high-conviction absolute return market views each year. These views may relate to equities, currencies, local fixed income or credit. The launch note explains the fundamental rationale and market valuation considerations behind the absolute view with reference to the relevant political and economic analyses published by our country teams and analysts.

TS Absolute Views

This monthly update is published in the second week of the month. It lists our high-conviction absolute return market views, provides an update of market developments and any changes in our outlook and monitors the performance of the views. Each new high-conviction absolute return market view is initiated with an Absolute View Launch Note.

FX Scorecard

We publish our FX Scorecard every six to eight weeks. This publication provide an accessible heatmap illustration of our FX market views about each of the EM countries that we cover. We assign scores to the currencies according to factors objectively derived from current market and economic data and combined with our subjective view of domestic and external drivers.

Fixed Income Scorecard

We publish updates to our Fixed Income Scorecard every six to eight weeks. This publication provides an accessible heatmap illustration of our local fixed income market views about each of the EM countries that we cover. We assign scores to local market debt according to factors objectively derived from current market and economic data and combined with our subjective view of domestic and external drivers.

Strategy Flash

The Strategy Flash is a short (typically two-page) EM macro strategy note published once or twice a month. It focuses on either a top-down emerging market theme, cross-country comparative analysis or an individual country. It is market-oriented and covers equities, FX, fixed income or credit. The Strategy Flash makes abundant use of charts and heatmaps to illustrate our market views.

* This week, Christopher Granville, Grace Fan, Larry Brainard, Trey McArver, 20 Feb 2017
Global: Trump risks; China: capacity reductions; Brazil: Lula resurgence; Russia: Munich Security Conference; South Africa: turning the corner
EM Weekly
* Fundamental Drivers, Jon Harrison, Elizabeth Johnson, Trey McArver, Christopher Granville, Nicolo Bandera, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Irene Lauro, 14 Feb 2017
China: US relationship; Brazil: Ebbing inflation; India: State polls; Russia: Bullish mix
Fundamentals
* This week, Larry Brainard, Christopher Granville, Jonathan Fenby, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Elizabeth Johnson, Irene Lauro, Nicolo Bandera, 13 Feb 2017
An overview of growth prospects in key EMs
EM Weekly
* The Grid, Larry Brainard, 10 Feb 2017
The fundamental guide to emerging markets
Fundamentals
* This week, Jon Harrison, Jonathan Fenby, Elizabeth Johnson, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, Christopher Granville, Nicolo Bandera, Irene Lauro, 6 Feb 2017
Global: Trump weighs on markets; China: Confrontation ahead
EM Weekly