Emerging Markets

EM Political Economy

EM Watch

This publication is divided into three sections. In the first section, we explain the implications of recent and upcoming developments that have a bearing on our fundamental country and market views. The second section summarizes our selection of the “must read” notes from among our research published over the past week. Finally, we summarize our macro and market views for each of the 10 countries we cover.


Fundamental Drivers. This report summarizes our highconviction political-economy views. These political-economy views are the fundamental drivers of the absolute and relative market strategy views expressed in our monthly strategy reports: Absolute Views and Strategy Monthly.

The Grid. This report presents our fundamental guide to emerging markets using an accessible heatmap style to highlight our view of the short-term and long-term growth drivers and the economic outlook for each emerging market economy.

Structural Change Index. The Structural Change Index is based on our analysts’ detailed insights and is published every six months. It offers a framework in which to understand our insights into the drivers of long-term (3-5 year) sustainable economic growth and provides a diversified input into the investment decision-making process that can be used alongside standard inputs – such as valuation metrics, investor sentiment, macroeconomic and market timing indicators.

EM Macro Strategy

Strategy Monthly

This is our flagship strategy publication, which appears at the beginning of each month. It elaborates on our political, economic, asset allocation and market views across asset classes for each of the 10 emerging market countries we cover: China, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, South Africa and Turkey. Our Chief Economist Larry Brainard writes a portfolio strategy essay in each EM Strategy Monthly that covers an important market topic related to the external drivers of emerging market asset prices or to a current emerging market theme. As part of our internal process for producing the EM Strategy Monthly, we take detailed inputs from our country teams and analysts and hold a monthly investment conclusions meeting at which we discuss existing and proposed absolute and relative market views and their fundamental drivers.

Market Views

Absolute View Launch Note. We highlight three to four high-conviction absolute return market views each year. These views may relate to equities, currencies, local fixed income or credit. The Launch Note explains the fundamental rationale and market valuation considerations behind the absolute view with reference to the relevant political and economic analyses published by our country teams and analysts.

Absolute Views. This monthly update lists our high-conviction absolute return market views, provides an update of market developments and any changes in our outlook and monitors the performance of the views. Each new high-conviction view is initiated with a Launch Note.

FX Scorecard. This publication provide an accessible heatmap illustration of our FX market views about each of the EM countries that we cover. We assign scores to the currencies according to factors objectively derived from current market and economic data and combined with our subjective view of domestic and external drivers.

Fixed Income Scorecard. This publication provides an accessible heatmap illustration of our local fixed income market views about each of the EM countries that we cover. We assign scores to local market debt according to factors objectively derived from current market and economic data and combined with our subjective view of domestic and external drivers.

Strategy Flash. We publish ad-hoc notes on either a top-down emerging market theme, cross-country comparative analysis or an individual country. It is market oriented and covers equities, FX, fixed income or credit, or may include cross-asset analysis.

* Structural Change Index: Biannual update, Jon Harrison, 25 Apr 2017
* EM Watch, Jon Harrison, Christopher Granville, Cristobal Arias, Grace Fan, Jonathan Fenby, Jules Bordat, 24 Apr 2017
Trump-free drivers; China: US accord; Brazil: Lula leads; India: RBI hawks
EM Weekly
* The Grid, Larry Brainard, 18 Apr 2017
The fundamental guide to emerging markets
* EM Watch, Christopher Granville, Elizabeth Johnson, Jon Harrison, Michelle Lam, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 17 Apr 2017
Country selection; China: Rising imports; Brazil: Reform outlook; India: Fiscal risk
EM Weekly
* Fundamental Drivers, Bo Zhuang, Christopher Granville, Cristobal Arias, Elizabeth Johnson, Jon Harrison, Jules Bordat, Marcus Chenevix, Shumita Sharma Deveshwar, 11 Apr 2017
China: Rising prices; Brazil: Pension battle; India: Confidence boost; Russia: Geopolitical downturn; Mexico: Inflation expectations