China's evolving labour market

Overview

Forecasts of a general labour shortage in China are over-stated but labour market conditions are becoming increasingly complex. Demographic forces alone will ensure the persistence of surplus labour from rural areas on a major scale for some years to come, even if the available pool is shrinking. Government concern about job creation shows that the authorities do not expect the flow of workers to tail off seriously.

But shortages are likely to occur in specific areas and industries...