Fergus Naughton

Senior Analyst, China Research
+86 10 5960 3315

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Recent China research

* China Watch: No surprises ahead of the Party Congress, Larry Brainard, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 21 Sep 2017
* China Watch: Slowing Chinese imports could hit EM, Jon Harrison, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 14 Sep 2017
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* China cuts domestic gas prices – demand (and security concerns?) to rise further, Stephen O'Sullivan, 7 Sep 2017
* China Gas Reform: Softly, Softly, Stephen O'Sullivan, 5 Sep 2017

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China housing sector - Correcting, not crashing

Overview

Bearishness over the prospects of the Mainland’s housing sector has been growing over the past several months as weakening figures raise questions about whether a sinking property market could dampen broader economic growth and return China’s outlook to a hard-landing scenario. While we expect housing data to continue to disappoint over the next two quarters, we do not believe that a softening in the housing market will trigger a systemic crash. Rather, we see the slide in price...

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