Larry Brainard

Chief Economist
+ 44 (0) 203 008 6092

Dian Qu

Analyst, China Research
+44 (0)203 008 5764

Justine Moxham

Analyst, China Research

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Recent China research

* China Watch: Outlook for 2018, Larry Brainard, Trey McArver, Michelle Lam, 7 Dec 2017
* China Perspective: North Korea scores, US stuck, Jonathan Fenby, 1 Dec 2017
* China Watch: The profit cycle – still some way to go, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, Larry Brainard, 30 Nov 2017
* China Watch: China’s road to an automotive superpower, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, Larry Brainard, Kingsmill Bond, 23 Nov 2017
* China Watch: Financial liberalisation - a step forward, Jon Harrison, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 16 Nov 2017

See all our China research >>

Where are China’s new growth drivers?

Overview

A return to the traditional investment-led economic strategy will be impossible once the boost from the current stimulus package loses steam in the next two-three years. China will of necessity be turning inward to develop new growth drivers. This transition will take at least four-six years, during which time economic expansion is likely to remain weak compared with past trends.

The biggest untapped gains in productivity lie in the accelerated transfer of rural labour into the...

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