The issues behind the 17th Communist Party Congress

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A real debate about the future of the Party surrounds the upcoming congress, as shown by the articles in Study Times and Yanhuang Chunqiu. Hu Jintao appears to accept the need for some political change, as Zeng Zuoshi argues. But he does not want to risk weakening the power of the CCP. Equally, while he will press his “harmonious society” to reduce wealth disparities and re-balance Chinese growth at the congress, he dare not put a serious brake on economic expansion.

Hu is a deeply cautious operator and, as Willy Lam argues, will do all he can to preserve CCP unity, which will cramp his ability to implement far-reaching change. Instead, he is likely to make much of the Taiwan issue as a rallying point at the congress.

The succession question is important for the way in which it illustrates Hu’s weakness and his need to compromise with groups that want more collegial decision-making at the top. This may be more “democratic” but it could encourage volatility and factionalism as Xi and Li struggle for the succession – as the Chinese saying goes: “two tigers on one mountain”. That would further complicate policy-making and its implementation at a time when the PRC needs firm leadership in economic and social areas.