The issues behind the 17th Communist Party Congress

Public Judgements

Urgent political reform is needed

Li Rui, former secretary of Mao Zedong, who speaks for the older generation of reformers, in an article in the October issue of the Beijing magazine Yanhuang Chunqiu. China could be dragged into chaos unless political democratisation catches up with economic reform, and the Communist Party’s privileged status is ended. So, reform of the Party is "the crux that will decide the success or failure of all of China's reforms".

Study Times, Communist Party newspaper, September. Political reform is urgently needed to accommodate the market economy, the opening up of society and cultural pluralism.

Yanhuang Chunqiu, magazine. The Chinese Communist Party should follow the Nordic "democratic socialist" model of respecting social equality and political liberty and forget Soviet models.

Hu sees the need for political reform...

Zeng Zuoshi, Chinese commentator, in the Nanfang Zhuang magazine. Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao have recognised the need for political reform. This will enable the regime to avoid entering a downward cycle in which political problems and growing disparities in wealth and society outweigh economic growth. It will be helped by the ability of the Chinese people to suffer in patience and by the remaining room to spread the benefits of growth.

...but fears provoking CCP divisions

Willy Lam, China analyst, Jamestown Review. Hu Jintao fears that raising the issue of political reform would provoke fresh divisions in the Party. So the emphasis is on enhancing unity within the CCP. There are differences within the party over the pace of economic reform and opening up to the world, with the “new left ” criticising “market Darwinism” and arguing that it has led to the worst form of the strong preying on the weak. Hu and Wen Jiabao are nervous about such criticisms, particularly in light of the apparent failure of Wen’s economic control and adjustment policies – his interest and mortgage rate rises have failed to stem the fast growth of the cost of housing, education and medical treatment, and the consumer price index recently climbed to 6.5 per cent (annualised). So, in the interests of party unity, Hu has been forced to make major compromises regarding top-level personnel arrangements to be endorsed at the Congress, including the reported promotion of Xi Jinping of Shanghai.