The issues behind the 17th Communist Party Congress

Overview

Most attention at China’s 17th Communist Party Congress, which opens on 15 October, will be concentrated on the emergence – or not – of a new leader to succeed Hu Jintao when he steps down in 2012. But the personality contest obscures more important issues.

After three decades of economic reform, the leadership now faces a stiffer challenge to its authority than did its predecessors. Five years after his elevation, Hu must still accommodate competing factions and senior figures out to limit his authority. This points to a more volatile period in elite politics, with power rivalries underpinned by substantive disagreements on the trade-off between growth and social cohesion. The huge policy challenges involved here could be eased by political liberalization and reduced Party interference in government – against which, however, weigh the imperatives of Party unity and the Party dictatorship. The Congress cannot resolve such fundamental contradictions, but should cast light on the present balance between them.