Economic interests will trump politics in Taiwan’s presidential election

Overview

Taiwan holds its fifth democratic presidential election in January 2012, after four years in which the Kuomintang administration of Ma Ying-jeou developed closer relations with Mainland China. In the past, the election outcome had a determining effect on cross-Strait relations. Our judgment is that this will not be the case next year and that, whatever the outcome, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement negotiated between Beijing and Taipei under Ma will continue to form the basis...