Market alarm over China’s outlook is overstated. Although weaker external demand, falling property construction and infrastructure spending will reduce GDP growth in 2012 from this year’s 9-9.5 per cent, we believe that the fall will only be to 8-8.5 per cent, assuming growth in the US and the EU of only 1-1.5 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. Quarterly year-on-year expansion may temporarily drop further in Q1/12, to 7.5-8 per cent, but is unlikely to go any lower. We see no case...
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