China’s upside surprise

At a time when global growth prospects are weakening many analysts are revising growth forecasts for China downwards to fit the gloomy mood of the markets. Though we are joining this crowd, we believe the inevitable slowdown in exports will not come over the next three-four months but in 2012. We think the strength of economic growth will surprise on the upside in the months ahead as the domestic inventory cycle ends and restocking boosts domestic demand.

Larry Brainard, our Chief...

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