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Recent China research
|Korea: Jaw Jaw, not War War – for now, Jonathan Fenby, 28 Apr 2017|
|China: Regulators get serious, Larry Brainard, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 27 Apr 2017|
|China’s long march to LNG, Stephen O'Sullivan, 26 Apr 2017|
|China: Outperformance, Bo Zhuang, Jonathan Fenby, Larry Brainard, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 20 Apr 2017|
|China: Approaching the mini-cycle’s peak, Michelle Lam, 13 Apr 2017|
See all our China research >>
Is China’s local government debt a serious problem?
China’s ambitious stimulus package has fuelled concern that the rapid rise in local government debt may upset the stability of state finances and burden the banks with unmanageable non-performing loans (NPLs). We estimate that total public debt amounted to 56 per cent of GDP at the end of 2009, a figure at the low end of the range of similar ratios in other major countries. NPLs will undoubtedly increase in the next 2–3 years, a legacy of politically directed credit extended in...