Larry Brainard

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Bo Zhuang

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Recent China research

* China: More debt, higher rates, “stable” RMB, Bo Zhuang, Trey McArver, 17 Mar 2017
* China: Not the healthy growth mix you hope for, Michelle Lam, 16 Mar 2017
* China: Regional risk-off rises in growing crisis, Jonathan Fenby, Konstantinos Venetis, 13 Mar 2017
* China: Caution prevails in Beijing, Bo Zhuang, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, 9 Mar 2017
* China: Benign outlook hinges on Fed moves, Bo Zhuang, Jonathan Fenby, 8 Mar 2017

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Is China’s local government debt a serious problem?

Overview

China’s ambitious stimulus package has fuelled concern that the rapid rise in local government debt may upset the stability of state finances and burden the banks with unmanageable non-performing loans (NPLs). We estimate that total public debt amounted to 56 per cent of GDP at the end of 2009, a figure at the low end of the range of similar ratios in other major countries. NPLs will undoubtedly increase in the next 2–3 years, a legacy of politically directed credit extended in...

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