Larry Brainard

Chief Economist
+ 44 (0) 203 008 6092

Bo Zhuang

Economist
+44 (0)203 1707 250

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Recent China research

* China Watch: Resilience as headwinds are building, Michelle Lam, Trey McArver, Jon Harrison, 17 Aug 2017
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Is China’s local government debt a serious problem?

Overview

China’s ambitious stimulus package has fuelled concern that the rapid rise in local government debt may upset the stability of state finances and burden the banks with unmanageable non-performing loans (NPLs). We estimate that total public debt amounted to 56 per cent of GDP at the end of 2009, a figure at the low end of the range of similar ratios in other major countries. NPLs will undoubtedly increase in the next 2–3 years, a legacy of politically directed credit extended in...

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