Larry Brainard

Chief Economist
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Bo Zhuang

Economist
+44 (0)203 1707 250

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Recent China research

* China Watch: Q3 GDP, Party Congress and the IMF annual meetings, Michelle Lam, Jonathan Fenby, Larry Brainard, 19 Oct 2017
* China Perspective: Communist Party Congress - What Xi’s new era means, Jonathan Fenby, 18 Oct 2017
* China Perspective: Communist Party Congress - The flaws in Xi’s world order, Jonathan Fenby, 16 Oct 2017
* China Watch: Pressure on housing sales to grow, Bo Zhuang, Jonathan Fenby, Jon Harrison, 12 Oct 2017
* China Perspective: Communist Party Congress - All Xi’s men, Trey McArver, 10 Oct 2017

See all our China research >>

Is China’s local government debt a serious problem?

Overview

China’s ambitious stimulus package has fuelled concern that the rapid rise in local government debt may upset the stability of state finances and burden the banks with unmanageable non-performing loans (NPLs). We estimate that total public debt amounted to 56 per cent of GDP at the end of 2009, a figure at the low end of the range of similar ratios in other major countries. NPLs will undoubtedly increase in the next 2–3 years, a legacy of politically directed credit extended in...

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