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China's explosive development requires stability if it is to be sustained - but the pace and nature of growth, itself, threatens to undermine stability and thus erode sustainability. More
Strategic questions Can China continue its progress of the last two decades to become one of the two or three major global economies, or will it be subject to in-built limitations and tensions arising from its power structure?
Short-term question Will President Hu Jintao be able to impose central authority and his 'harmonious society' ahead of next year's Communist Party Congress?
Strategic question Where do China's future strengths lie, and what comparative advantages can it leverage?
Short-term questions Can China move beyond low-cost manufacturing and assembly to up its economic game? Will it take steps to encourage innovation to produce competitive global companies and brands?
Strategic question What are the major weaknesses in the Chinese system, some aggravated by growth? Can they be remedied - or are they endemic?
Short-term questions Will alienation and social discontent rise? Can the Communist party find a new vocation in the coming months by introducing measures to assuage popular anger at official oppression, land grabs, lack of accountability or the rule of law, pollution, lack of welfare and the weak pensions system?
Strategic question Can the Communist regime survive?
Short-term questions Will Hu Jintao impose stronger centralised control and clamp down on dissident views as he moves beyond the transitional phase of his party leadership - and will this prove counter-productive?
Strategic question Can China be more than an export powerhouse?
Short-term questions Will reform of state banks and the financial system be pursued energetically following the ICBC IPO? How will Beijing move on the currency? Will the bid to encourage consumption to balance investment finally bear fruit?
Strategic question Can the world live with a powerful China?
Short-term questions After the North Korean nuclear test, will an East Asian grouping emerge? Will trade disputes break out with the US and EU in the rest of this year? Will China continue its drive into Africa, and build up its collection of unsavoury friends?
If you would like to read more please contact Craig Harrison on +44 203 008 6093 or email the research team.
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