Brazilian ethanol will benefit medium term from likely near-term fall in US import tariff

With world sugar prices once again testing three-decade highs (after a positive turn for the industry that we anticipated in our March note), few investors are paying much attention these days to Brazil’s underperforming ethanol export industry. But they should be. Recent developments support our view that the US ethanol import tariff of US$0.54/gallon, which will expire on 31 December, is likely to be replaced by a temporary reduced tariff that could itself be eliminated as early as...