Making sense of emerging markets

Brazil

* Brazil’s fertilizer plan: Good for Vale, bad for Petrobras, 24 Feb 2010
Agriculture/food/biofuels
* Regulatory changes shouldn’t deter rail investors, Grace Fan, 23 Feb 2010
New rules are not likely to hurt prospects for new private investment
Infrastructure
* Understanding the risks of the 2010 presidential election, Elizabeth Johnson, 12 Feb 2010
Major policy changes are unlikely, no matter who wins
Politics/governance
* Subsalt/Petrobras bills hit a welcome snag, Grace Fan, 5 Feb 2010
Royalties issue roils congressional debate and will likely provoke delays that are ultimately beneficial for investors
Energy
* Brazil fertilizer investment could score big political points for Vale, 22 Jan 2010
Brief Notes
* Ethanol: Longer-term outlook brightens despite a temporary drop in blend, Grace Fan, 14 Jan 2010
The US, Brazil’s top market, is on track to trim its ethanol import tariff at year end
Agriculture/food/biofuels
* Power jolted back to centre stage, Grace Fan, 10 Dec 2009
Short-term supplies are assured but a medium-term electricity crunch still threatens
Energy
* Should Brazil's credit card companies fear the regulators?, Elizabeth Johnson, 7 Dec 2009
Concerns that the Banco Central will recommend, and Congress will pass, radical changes to the card-acquiring industry are overblown
Consumer
* Subsalt legislation and Petrobras bill advance, Grace Fan, 11 Nov 2009
Rising dissent could reshape terms of Petrobras capital increase bill in H1/10
Energy
* Brazil battles the inevitable with the ineffective, Larry Brainard, 3 Nov 2009
The new tax on capital inflows will boost volatility but not stem the Real’s long-term appreciation
Macro policy
* When will the sugar high vanish?, Grace Fan, 29 Oct 2009
Even when prices inevitably drop, the balance sheets of Brazil's top sugar-ethanol firms should stay healthy in 2010
Agriculture/food/biofuels
* Bureaucratic snags highlight challenges for road concessions, Elizabeth Johnson, 15 Oct 2009
Despite bumps in the road, the sector continues to merit investor attention
Infrastructure
* Racing into farmland: Risks and rewards, Grace Fan, 1 Oct 2009
Excellent long-term prospects, but some young firms will feel short- to medium-term growing pains
Agriculture/food/biofuels
* BRAZIL: M&A puts antitrust regulators to the test, Elizabeth Johnson, 21 Sep 2009
Brazilian authorities are likely to approve the Perdigao-Sadia merger, despite their tough talk
Politics/governance
UPDATE: BRAZIL: Petrobras’ subsalt role becomes clearer UPDATE: BRAZIL: Petrobras’ subsalt role becomes clearer, Grace Fan, 4 Sep 2009
The new regulatory model makes subsalt central to the 2010 presidential race
Energy
* BRAZIL: Banks pile into payroll lending, Elizabeth Johnson, Grace Fan, 2 Sep 2009
Growth in payroll credit has surpassed pre-crisis levels and competition will continue to be fierce, especially from public banks
Consumer
* The TS View: Brazilian markets move into pole position, Larry Brainard, 19 Aug 2009
Most investors missed the rally – get set for the rerun
Macro policy
* BRAZIL: Petrobras and subsalt in the political spotlight, Grace Fan, 13 Aug 2009
Lula’s current goal is not the rapid passage of new oil legislation, but a win for his party in the 2010 presidential election
Energy
* Brazil: Retail revving up, Grace Fan, 23 Jul 2009
Sales of durables will accelerate in H2/09, aided by temporary tax breaks and expanding consumer credit
Consumer
* BRAZIL-CHINA: Love match or clash of titans?, Elizabeth Johnson, Larry Brainard, 14 Jul 2009
Despite the impressive growth of trade a rocky road lies ahead
Macro policy
* Brazil Ethanol UPDATE: Petrobras gasoline hike and Cosan acquisition of Esso, 25 May 2008
Developments at Petrobras and Cosan highlight the strategic case for Brazilian ethanol and point to profitability gains
Energy
* Brazil: How will the global crisis affect Brazilian ethanol? UPDATE, 25 Nov 2008
Bargain M&A opportunities emerge in a sector with compelling medium- to long-term prospects
Energy
* Brazil: Sweet or sour? Ethanol and sugar 2009-10, 28 May 2009
India’s current sugar deficit will undoubtedly aid Brazilian producers, but the sector’s longer-term health depends on anchoring and developing ethanol export markets
Agriculture/food/biofuels
* Brazil: Who benefits from the new housing package?, 14 May 2009
Electoral politics are driving the new low-income housing stimulus package, but some construction materials companies and developers will benefit
Consumer
* Brazil UPDATE: How will animal protein fare in the global crisis?, 11 Mar 2009
Export volumes are stabilising, but lower revenues and credit woes will burden the sector in the shorter term
Agriculture/food/biofuels