Kingsmill Bond

New Energy Analyst
+44 20 7246 7800

About New Energy Blog

Kingsmill Bond has been an emerging market and Russian strategist for many years, with a focus latterly on energy, as Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter. In the new energy revolution he sees a primary driver of global history and financial markets.

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Featured New Energy research

Recent New Energy research

* Energy return on investment, Kingsmill Bond, 7 Mar 2017
* The end of the ICE age, Kingsmill Bond, 2 Feb 2017
* Renewable intermittency, Kingsmill Bond, 13 Dec 2016

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Previous blog posts

New Energy Blog

What shifting energy foundations mean for the investment superstructure

Energy return on investment: The dawn of the age of solar

8 Mar 2017

Universal, eternal and high return – the energy return on investment (EROI) of solar has overtaken that of oil, and the gap is widening. This heralds the dawn of the age of solar.

The EROI of solar is high: a new solar panel now pays for its energy costs within one year and over the course of its lifetime generates 22 times as much primary energy as it takes to make it, set it up and maintain it. Moreover, the EROI of solar keeps on rising. Improved efficiency, economies of scale and learning by doing will drive up the EROI of solar to more than 30 within five years.


Read the full text of "Energy return on investment: The dawn of the age of solar"

The end of the ICE age

3 Feb 2017

At current growth rates, electric vehicles (EVs) will supply all global incremental demand for cars within five years. Demand for conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars will then fall inexorably.

  • Where we stand today. Global car sales are around 80 million vehicles, growing at 2-3 per cent a year, while EV sales will exceed 1 million this year, growing at around 50 per cent a year. In 2017 EVs are likely to supply 20 per cent of incremental car sales.
  • Where the tipping point is. The tipping point for conventional car sales will come when EVs supply all incremental...

Read the full text of "The end of the ICE age"

China: Leader of the new energy future

11 Jul 2016

By Kingsmill Bond, New Energy Analyst

The battle for leadership in new energy deployment over the course of this decade is likely to be won by China. Europe has the most favourable government policies and the US the most famous entrepreneurs, but China has the best economics and the most polluted air.

Key judgments

  • The race is on. China, the US and Europe are locked in a race to deploy new energy and take the lead in a key technology of the future.
  • Why China is likely to win. China has the three key ingredients for victory – necessity, economics and autocracy. Without...

Read the full text of "China: Leader of the new energy future"

Consensus views on future energy supply and demand: The emperor has no clothes

20 Apr 2016

By Kingsmill Bond, New Energy Analyst

We kick off our research on the new energy revolution by arguing that the consensus view on the future of energy is fundamentally flawed.

Consensus forecasts of global energy supply and demand have a weak track record, show an obvious bias and make assumptions about future energy demand and renewables supply that are not credible. They imply that fossil fuel demand will keep on rising for another generation or more. In reality, at current growth rates, fossil fuel demand will peak by 2020.

Consensus solar and wind growth forecasts are too...

Read the full text of " Consensus views on future energy supply and demand: The emperor has no clothes"